[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 37.3W AT 1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 770 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1480 NM E OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE AND THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED W
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 36W-40W...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 280 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 23N MOVING W 20 KT. DESPITE THE
HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS MINIMAL
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 60W-63W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
NRN LESSER ANTILLES ALSO CONFIRMS POSITION OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE ALONG WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 72W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 17N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD AND INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE E PACIFIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR MORE INFORMATION. VERY
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 9N28W 15N30W 10N38W
6N53W ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS SRN FLORIDA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS
RIDGING IS PROVIDING PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ACROSS THE SWRN GULF...THIS IS AIDING IN PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS IN THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-26N
W OF OF 94W INCLUDING COASTAL S TEXAS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN THE NE GULF WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF KEEPING E-SE WINDS LIGHT N OF 23N
AND E OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SEA. THE
EASTERN ONE ALONG 62W IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ERN PUERTO RICO. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WAVE
MOVES UNDER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN. THE OTHER WAVE ALONG 76W IS AIDING IN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL GREATER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO 12N W OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
1010 MB LOW N OF WRN PANAMA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE W ATLC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SRN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E
OF THE UPPER LOW N OF CUBA ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...THE ERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. E OF 75W A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE
COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC IN THE UPPER LEVELS. FARTHER E...A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N49W WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 22N58W. LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS
E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 20N39W. OVERALL...
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH CENTERS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE ANALYZED 1025 MB NEAR 33N60W...THE
OTHER 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 38N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEAKENING
THE RIDGE FROM 31N49W TO 26N57W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW AND THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE NW. SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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