[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 16.0N 33.5W AT
05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1015 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING WEST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 31W
AND 33W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS MOVE BERTHA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF
YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO 60W...ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 19N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 73W IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI MAY BE RELATED
TO THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OR TO THE LARGER
SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W FROM
COSTA RICA TO PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHERN
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 87W AND 97W IN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 10N21W 16N28W 12N34W 7N40W 5N54W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND
20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTH
TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 26N103W IN NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO 20N103W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W IN MEXICO. CELLS OF LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO
FROM 21N TO 24N...AND NEAR 19N92.5W.  AN UPPER RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N83W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN ONE CELL JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND
IN A LINE ABOUT 30 NM WIDE FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N79W
TO 26N79W TO 29N77W TO 31N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 28N73W TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO 20N85W AND 26N83W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG
12N82W 18N80W BEYOND 22N78W IN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS
UNDER THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING...POSSIBLY LINGERING...
PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 68W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N68W. THE 57W/58W IS ENTERING THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NOT BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N51W TO 29N56W TO 20N64W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W TO 28N50W TO 26N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N45W BEYOND 33N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 30N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 26N AND 40W WITH THE RIDGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 34N59W TO 28N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

$$

MT




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