[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 25.6W AT 2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD PATTERN SURROUNDING BERTHA
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 47W/48W S OF 20N MOVING W 15
KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
HOWEVER FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 46W-53W.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 12N MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE NOTED IN
AVAILABLE DATA. THIS WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE REMOVED FROM THE
NEXT SURFACE MAP.

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG
67W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A SMALL SURFACE SWIRL IS NOTED
NEAR 14N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-68W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF
15N MOVING W 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN IN THE LOW
CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTEND FROM PANAMA TO E HONDURAS
FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 76W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 15N22W 10N27W 9N35W 4N50W
8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF BERTHA FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 25N AND E OF 90W.  THE ERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY NLY FLOW W OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 68W-78W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13N80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA
EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N60W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
21N43W.

$$
FORMOSA




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