[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO. T.D. TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W...ABOUT
215 NM SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING WNW
AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND A COMPACT AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 42W/43W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE REGION WHERE THE ITCZ
INTERSECTS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 12N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE NOTED IN
THE AVAILABLE DATA...BUT IT MAY BE ENHANCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK LOW OR
VORTICITY
MAX IS SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF
15N MOVING W 15 KT. POSITION IS HIGHLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS
LITTLE SIGNATURE OR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA ALONG 94W/95W. REFER TO
THE EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 9N24W 7N39W 5N46W 7N57W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-27W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 52W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SWIFT WESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF AN
ELONGATED TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOT EXPERIENCING RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR (WHERE AVAILABLE)
INDICATE THE MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 89W-96W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS THE LIKELY ENHANCER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE
SFC...THE LINGERING FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED
ALLOWING ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF AREAS. ONE OF THE MORE PROMINENT AREAS
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EPAC AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
SCATTERED S OF 14N W OF 73W...LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 68W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
11N79W...BUT MUCH OF THIS IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR W ATLC BETWEEN
ELONGATED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. AND A
NARROW RIDGE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 78W. FARTHER E...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE SPINNING NEAR
30N50W AND NEAR 30N62W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH
AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 20N45W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N40W.
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 47W N OF 22N
(ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE) AND THE OTHER
FIZZLING ALONG 71W/72W N OF 28N...ARE WEAKENING THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS IN THEIR
VICINITY.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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