[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12N22W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
TRACKING W ABOUT 10 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTION (SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE IN NATURE) HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITHIN
90-120 NM OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DESPITE
THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS NOT MUCH
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED E OF THE AXIS.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE NOTED IN THE
AVAILABLE DATA...BUT IT MAY BE ENHANCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. A WEAK LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN
90-120 NM N/NE OF THE LOW CENTER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE AXIS...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SE
AND INCREASED TO 20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF
15N MOVING W 15 KT. POSITION IS HIGHLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS
LITTLE SIGNATURE OR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA ALONG 94W. REFER TO THE
EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N24W 10N33W 6N44W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-19W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-26W AND 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF
AN ELONGATED TROUGH LIE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOT EXPERIENCING RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR (WHERE AVAILABLE)
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SE WATERS AND THE FL
STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 85W. LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 86W-88W AND FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 90W-94W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS THE LIKELY ENHANCER FOR ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE SFC...THE LINGERING FRONT OVER THE N
GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD W
ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND
HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC AND A
DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED S OF
13N W OF 73W...LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-68W ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE
E OF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE
...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...
ESPECIALLY ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N79W...BUT MUCH
OF THIS IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR W ATLC BETWEEN
ELONGATED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. AND A
NARROW RIDGE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. FARTHER E...AN
UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 30N50W AND ANOTHER NEAR 30N62W WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR
20N44W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB IS CENTERED
NEAR 34N40W. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 48W
N OF 24N AND THE OTHER ALONG 71W N OF 27N...ARE WEAKENING THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS IN THEIR
VICINITY.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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