[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
ACTUALLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE
FROM 11N-14N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400NM E AND 100NM W
OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-10N. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS WEAK AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 46W AND 47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST EAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY CONFINED TO ITS W SIDE SHEARED BY UPPER ELY FLOW FROM
12N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W/74W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO
LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 92W/93W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 9N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N17W 9N30W 6N42W 7N52W 10N65W
11N80W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
76W-82W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE SAME PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. IT IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND NEAR THE ITCZ. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
LOCKED IN THIS AREA IS BEING DEEPENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 81W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAK AS THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD W FROM THE
ATLC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N69W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO NEAR 13N73W. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST BOTH TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW WATERS WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE S/SW PORTION FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE SAME PART OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. IT IS OCCURRING NEAR
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND
65W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W...
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF BARBADOS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A NARROW
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF
70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY
STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 30N50W AND RIDGING TO ITS EAST. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...
A RIDGE IS FROM 26N34W TO 12N54W WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE ONE IN THE FAR
E ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE PATTERN OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTRAL ATLC TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
CW/MT





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