[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC ALONG 20W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A 1010 MB
SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N/12N...VERY NEAR A
MAINTAINED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N WITHIN 60 NM E
AND 180 NM W OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED NW-SE ALONG 20N37W 7N34W. WHILE THIS
WAVE IS RATHER AMPLIFIED AS SEEN IN SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS
AND THE TPW FIELD...ORGANIZED DEEP CLOUDINESS IS MINIMAL WITH
ONLY ONE PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WEAK AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E.
HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N AND SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 55W-57W. A RECENT QSCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
ABOUT THE AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO
LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON
CONTINUITY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE
EVIDENT IN THE TPW FIELD. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
90W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO S
OF 20N BETWEEN 86W-95W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N21W 10N34W 6N41W 9N54W
10N62W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE SE WATERS FROM 24N-27N E OF 86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ENHANCED BY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAK AS A FRONT HAS DRIFTED N TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST
WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD W FROM THE ATLC. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE N
WATERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE S WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N72W.
WHILE DRY AIR IS EVIDENT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS MOIST BOTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
DIFFLUENT ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER
THE NW AND SW WATERS BUT THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
PUSHED W OF THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF
THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE S CENTRAL
AND SW WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW
PRES TROUGHING OVER COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...DUE TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY
STABLE WITH A FEW BENIGN UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE E ATLC. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W WITH MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY
THE VIGOROUS ONE IN THE FAR E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI







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