[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA  ALONG 17W
S OF 19N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS
SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 31/32W S OF
18N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. ACCORDING TO SOUNDING
DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR ON SUN AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EARLY MON. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DUE TO MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE WAVES TO ITS E. THERE IS
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD
DISPLAY A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100NM W OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N AND BETWEEN
15N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON
CONTINUITY AS LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE DATA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
82W-87W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N19W 9N29W 6N36W 5N43W 8N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-34W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
RUNNING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR
28N96W CONTINUING ACROSS S TEXAS. A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N
CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS GIVING THIS FRONT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 94W-98W A LITTLE BIT E OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE COVERING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO S
OF 22N W OF 98W. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT DUE TO OUTFLOW ON TOP
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST CLIPS THE AREA NEAR SE FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW E
OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W. WHILE DRY AIR IS
LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
LOCATED BOTH TO ITS E AND W. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMING AND PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BASE THERE ARE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS FROM PANAMA NEAR
9N78W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW COULD
BE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 60W-70W IN THE
E CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 14N53W. IN GENERAL BROAD UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN
40W-70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE 28N48W 26N61W 20N71W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS
AND UKMET MODELS SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE W AND NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N69W TO 22N77W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N14W TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR
28N12W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-30N
BETWEEN THE 28N48W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 34N14W 28N12W TROUGH.

$$
CW/MT





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