[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 06Z ANALYSIS IN THE VICINITY
OF 29W/30W ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE AND SOUNDING DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR ON SUN AND
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY MON. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF THIS
WAVE IS AMPLIFIED (A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED
NEAR 16N)...DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT IT IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 35W-40W...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY
THE LARGER WAVE TO THE E.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD DISPLAY
A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 49W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 14N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AS
LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. QSCAT DATA AND SFC OBSERVATION SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
ELY TRADES BEHIND THE AXIS AND LIGHTER NE/E WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
CONVECTION IS MAINLY GROUPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 8N28W 6N40W 7N51W 6N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA...IS FROM 8N-15N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BROAD RIDGING LIES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE
ARE A FEW FEATURES THAT ARE CAUSING ENHANCED LIFT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 83W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
NEAR THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL
WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OUT OF THE NE/E.

CARIBBEAN...
PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW E
OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W. WHILE DRY AIR IS
LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
LOCATED BOTH TO ITS E AND W. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
ZONE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
83W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 12N W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN INCREASE IN ELY TRADES (20-25 KT)
E OF THE AXIS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
ENHANCED AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONSISTING OF
MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE E
GULF AND A NARROW MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS QUIET DESPITE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH ONLY PATCHY MULTILAYER CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MID TO UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 16N/17N. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE VIGOROUS
ONE NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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