[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10E 1N10W 4N24W 3N38W CURVING S
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-32W AND S OF
THE EQUATOR W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE HOUSTON AREA TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W SUPPORTING BY A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A WARM FRONT RUNS EWD
ACROSS THE N GULF FROM S MISSISSIPPI THROUGH N FLORIDA. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A 45 NM SWATH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. OVERRUNNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT...MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA S AND E OF THE
FRONTS IS EXPERIENCING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH BRISK SE TO S
WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN THIS TIME TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND FIZZLE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG 76W WHILE SLIGHT TROUGHING
LIES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E CARIB INDUCED BY TROUGHS N
OF THE REGION. WV IMAGES REVEAL WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
REGION-WIDE. THIS SINKING AIR IS SUPPRESSING STREAMS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN ACROSS THE SEA. THE THICKEST
PATCHES...WHICH CONTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ARE MOVING S TO SW
OVER THE E CARIB DRIVEN BY THE MOIST NLY FETCH ON THE W SIDE OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. TRADES ARE FAIRLY BRISK ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL CARIB WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES TROUGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CARIBBEAN MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N OVER THE ATLC WATERS
ALONG 76W. PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE CAPPED
OVER THE BAHAMAS BY A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MULTILAYER
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N W OF 72W
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
LAYER TROUGHING COVERS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED
BY A WWD MOVING MID TO UPPER LOW NEAR 22N57W. VISIBLE IMAGERY
AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED 1014 MB SFC LOW
NEAR 24N57W IS OPENING AND LOSING ITS THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS.
AT 12Z...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED N OF THE
LOW ALONG 28N59W 32N59W AND A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED S TO 13N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED TO THE E OF THE
LOW/TROUGH FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 53W-56W. A LARGER BROADER UPPER
LOW IS SPINNING IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N29W. INSTABILITY NEAR THE
UPPER CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 30W-36W. WIDESPREAD SW TO W FLOW ALOFT TO
THE S OF THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AND TRANSPORTING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF ABOUT 40W.

AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND THE WEAK FRONT IN THE NW CORNER...THE SFC
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A
LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 33W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE...HELPING TO INCREASE THE ELY TRADES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS
IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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