[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 2N10W 4N30TO EQUATOR AT 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN SMALL 60 NM DIAMETER
CLUSTERS AT 4.5N305W 3.5N33W AND 2.5N42W. CONVECTION IS MOST
IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE AXIS WELL INLAND S AMERICA AT 1S53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTER NEAR JAMAICA...GENTLY RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG POINTS 21N97W 30N85W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS
STREAMING ENE AND EVAPORATING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. DRY
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED S OF LINE FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OLD
MEXICO AT 22N97W. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS N
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N88W WHERE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE
NOW MOVING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TO 25N96W. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THIS
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
WATERS TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA WITH
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED
BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL EVIDENT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE DISSIPATING ALONG 14N60W 13N70W
ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND WARM TOP SHOWERS. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS NE OVER THE AREA N OF THIS FRONT ADVECTING LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NE
PORTION. ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM 16N80W AND IS MOVING W IN THE BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES THAT DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
THE NORTHERN W ATLC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL EXTENDS SW
ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AT 29N81W
ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W
ATLC CRESTING ALONG POINTS 30N80W 31N67W 24N64W. A BAND OF UPPER
MOISTURE LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 29N80W 30N71W 26N94W. A
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS NEAR 24N56W AND IS SHIFTING S WITH TIME
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 20N53W 15N51W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LYING ALONG 24N52W 14N60W.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES IS AT 27.5N57W 1012 MB. SURFACE
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N70W 1023 MB RIDGING SW TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED S OF 25N W OF 65W
AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 53W.

THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED AT 28N27W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 10N20W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CYCLONE NEAR 26N25W. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE EQUATOR CRESTING ALONG 15N47W 22N36W
THEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC INTO THE TROUGH ALREADY
MENTIONED. THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE
BECOMING MORE DENSE S OF 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. AT THE LOW
LEVELS BRISK NE FLOW AND LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
NOTED E OF 50W.

$$
NELSON



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