[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N25W 3N35W 3N45W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM N OF
AXIS WEST OF 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
70 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS 09Z...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A 70 NM
WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS NOTED IN SATELLITE PICTURES AND
DOPPLER RADAR. NLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
28N69W. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC DOMINATES
THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE N GULF WATERS AND THE
SE US. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND NE MEXICO THIS EVENING AND
RETROGRESS N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 58W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB
LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N54W TO GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
THEN CONTINUES SW AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
PHOTOS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BUT ONLY FRAGMENTS OF LOW
LEVELS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INVADING
PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER A PREVAILING NLY WIND
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NICARAGUA WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ALONG 55W. THEN...THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE WWD FOLLOWED BY A SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS N OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC. E OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
LIES ACROSS 58W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A
NARROWING RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N54W TO
13N554. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM AHEAD
THE FRONT N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N22W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N26W TO 17N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE RUNS
FROM 24N23W TO E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N20W.

$$
GR





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