[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W EQ34W 1S40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 32W-35W AND NEAR 4N26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF. AS OF O9Z...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TAMPA AREA WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW SW TO
22N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES INTO S-CENTRAL
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. THE LOW
WILL OPEN UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA AS NOTED
IN DOPPLER RADAR. A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THICK LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP
AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL NLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR TOPOGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS MEXICO GIVING THE
GULF A NWLY WIND FLOW. WV IMAGERY REVEALS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 23. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF 30N SUPPORTS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN BY THE COMPUTER MODELS OVER THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ON MONDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS PRETTY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID
TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE E
CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS SEEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROMISES TO ARRIVE TO HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY
REACHING PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST ALONG
31N75W 28N80W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR
31N44W...THEN CONTINUES SE TO THE SE BAHAMAS/E CUBA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. A 1023 MB HIGH IS BEHIND
THE FRONT NEAR 33N57W...AND WILL MOVE MAINLY EWD ACROSS THE
OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNCHANGED. A
LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA...AND A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 27N30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NE OF CENTER. A 1016 MB SFC
LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. A SFC TROUGH
IS ATTACHED TO THE LOW AND RUNS FROM 32N29W TO 22N31W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS E OF 25W FROM
20N-32N. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.

$$
GR






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