[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 6N14W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO
BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2S TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 45W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FLOW EVENTUALLY FLATTENS OUT ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING MOSTLY JUST WESTERLY WIND FLOW. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER EASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N93W...BECOMING STATIONARY
AT 25N93W AND CONTINUING TO 22N96W...TO 18N96W IN MEXICO...
21N100W AND 25N101W IN MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 28N
EAST OF 90W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
TO 27N59W TO 25N61W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 24N60W TO EASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 22N73W 25N60W 27N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N55W 29N50W BEYOND 32N47W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OR MORE OF THE AREA. THE CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STAYING SOUTH OF 15N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...FROM JAMAICA TO
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO
16N76W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL-TO-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 25W AND
60W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N28W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
26N31W...TO 17N34W TO 14N36W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
14N TO 30N ALONG 29W/30W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 34N35W TO 29N44W
TO 23N51W TO 11N59W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST
OF 25W...PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND CANARY ISLANDS
TO AFRICA.

$$
MT


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