[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 4N16W 2N27W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS NE FLORIDA. THIS IS BRINGING IN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA THROUGH A 1017 MB
LOW NEAR 26N81W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE NEXT FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY WED AND MOVE SLOWLY E AND S OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO THE TIP OF
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 32N WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W
WSW TO 28N48W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG 26N65W TO JUST
E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 33N70W SSW TO 27N73W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N
BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
AREA BRIDGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 20N W OF 40W TO THE E
COAST OF THE US. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE ATLC TO 35W. A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE
E ATLC NEAR 29N26W WITH A EQUALLY WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
15N21W N ALONG 22N24W TO 29N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM 27N28W TO 32N30W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
TROPICS S OF THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG A LINE FROM 11N41W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THEN NE
TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL MAURITANIA IN W AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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