[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 4N14W 2N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-23W AND
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N S OF THE
EQUATOR W OF 42W TO THE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE E US INTO
THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF NORTH
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW.
A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
OVER LOUISIANA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEAKENING IN THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
27N88W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 87W-90W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST WHICH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF EARLY WED.
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N OVER W CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W-87W. RETURN FLOW OVER THE W
GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 94W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST N OF BELIZE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE NW/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N46W WSW TO 27N65W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W INTO THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE N CUBAN COAST.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W
OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE
VIRGINA COAST COVERS THE E US AND THE ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL AS BRIDGES THE FRONT N OF 20N W OF 40W WITH A 1026 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N47W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
23N55W COVERING THE AREA W OF 37W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 18W-37W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW
NEAR 30N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM 14N19W N TO 23N20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N
E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS AT THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 11N44W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN NE
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR THE S PORTION OF WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
WALLACE





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