[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N21W 2N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-37W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-24W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF
6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO
THE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE E US INTO THE
NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT COVERS THE GULF N OF 24N. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N89W AND A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE N GULF EARLY WED. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF
26N E OF 83W TO OVER S FLORIDA/THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA.
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND ACROSS THE EXTREME NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE
FROM 14N64W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 19N72W. STRONG NE TO E TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE NW/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N50W WSW TO 28N62W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W INTO THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST N OF THE CUBAN COAST.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W
OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE
VIRGINA COAST COVERS THE E US AND THE ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL AS BRIDGES THE FRONT N OF 20N W OF 40W WITH A 1027 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N51W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
25N52W COVERING THE AREA W OF 38W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE E ATLC N OF 17N FROM 20W-38W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW
NEAR 28N27W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N28W S ALONG
24N26W TO 14N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM 18W-29W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS
ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MERGES WITH A
TROPICAL JETSTREAM NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS
WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 10N45W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR THE S PORTION OF WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
WALLACE


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