[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N14W 3N26W EQ34W 1N42W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 467W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 11W-19W AND BETWEEN 22W-31W. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 31W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC EARLIER
TODAY IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF W TO SW UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 110 KTS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE AREA
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOMINATES THE GULF WHILE THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF A LINE
FROM JUST S OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO MOSTLY
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF 28N W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO THE THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND
WHERE IT CONTINUES S INLAND OVER HONDURAS AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTING THE WEAKEN LATER TODAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N59W TO
19N67W. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG
27N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN TO MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200
NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF A LINE
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N58W COVERING THE AREA W
OF 45W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM
28W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N21W EXTENDING S ALONG 24N23W TO 17N31W WHERE IT CONTINUES W
TO 15N44W AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 17N56W OVER THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E PUERTO RICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
16N59W TO 19N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOME RATHER DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A JETSTREAM
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS ALONG THE W PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FRONTS WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N47W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SECOND JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90
TO 115 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
ALONG A LINE FROM 15N37W TO INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA IN
AFRICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA
FROM 10N18W TO 19N17W.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net