[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201829
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 4N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA
ALONG 24N80W 23N81W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF FOR THE NEXT SIX
HOURS...N OF 21N E OF 92W WITH N TO NE WINDS 25-35 KT SEAS 9-14
FT. THE W GULF HAS 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE S GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THIS LINE.  EXPECT...850 MB
OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM W CUBA TO W HONDURAS ALONG 23N81W 20N85W 16N87W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.  VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND W CUBA WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE
FRONT TO GO STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N47W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N25W 24N26W 20N30W
17N40W DISSIPATING TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 30W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W
OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
30N30W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN
50W-70W.  A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 8N40W TO 20N16W OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA




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