[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W...TO 2S49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...FROM 2S TO 1N
BETWEEN 35W AND 44W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
44W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST
MUCH OF ITS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THINGS SEEM TO BE
A BIT DISJOINTED AT THE MOMENT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS BEYOND 26N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N86W 28N83W. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
STILL INDICATES 20 KT TO 25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LOW-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM
A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE AREA. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST INDICATES EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM
8 FT TO 10 FT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW EAST OF 70W...FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
70W AND 83W...AND NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W GOING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 26N60W TO
24N70W...A WARM FRONT 24N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG
THE 32N49W 26N78W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N30W TO A 21N36W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16N47W TO 12N54W.

$$
MT




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