[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W EQ40W 2S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-37W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN
46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB GALE LOW IS JUST S OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N90W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
ALONG 20N96W 21N99W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND ARE FORECAST TO
LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT SIX HOURS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  THUS...
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL TO 1012 MB AND MOVE
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO GET SOME BADLY NEEDED RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 81W FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W
MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF
THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N52W 25N70W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 46W FROM 10N-20N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1030 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N21W PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW
FROM W AFRICA TO 40W BETWEEN 20W-30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
NWLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W DUE TO A BROAD RIDGE.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N38W.
IN THE TROPICS...A JET STREAM...WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS
SE OF THE E ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N30W TO
BEYOND 22N17W OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA






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