[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N21W 2N30W 1S37W...AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL
AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N 49W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS/SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N81W
23N86W 23N89W 25N91W 28N92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE TOP OF
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS AT A COMPARATIVELY LOWER LEVEL
IN THE SKY. IT LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY BE TRYING TO FORM FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...
LET US WAIT AND SEE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...IN THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
IT HAD RAINED 1.90 INCHES DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
06/1200 UTC. THE DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 28N60W 24N62W 17N62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF HAITI. A RIDGE FROM THIS
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA TO 13N81W IN THE AREA OF THE ISLANDS OF PROVIDENCIA
AND SAN ANDRES OF COLOMBIA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN
AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE IN AN AREA OF SURFACE ONSHORE
WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 33N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK TROUGH
THAT IS HUGGING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST FROM NORTH
CAROLINA TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...BRINGING SOME FOG/CLOUDS/
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ACCOMPANIES A RIDGE FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N46W TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N60W TO 30N77W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N60W 24N62W 17N62W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N40W AND GOES TO
29N44W 23N50W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 27N39W AND 30N38W. MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS ARE SPINNING
AROUND THE TROUGH/LOW CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N30W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N30W 17N33W AND 13N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N38W 25N37W BEYOND 32N35W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N32W 20N25W BEYOND 32N24W.

$$
MT


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