[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W 3N36W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS EAST OF 16W
AND WITHIN 60 N OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEPARTING 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF BERMUDA EXTENDING
A RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT ELY TO
SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND
NOW EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 75W. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE NW GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER HONDURAS AND JUST TO THE EAST OF BELIZE.
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...REACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. FURTHER EAST...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
WELL AS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE SEEN OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF
19N AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST N OF
BERMUDAS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N41W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO JUST N
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A VAST AREA OF BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT WITH NE SURFACE
WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 29N40W TO 20N38W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED
ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N40W BASED
ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND CLOUD MOTIONS. A 1031 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 34N23W MOVING EWD. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WEST ATLANTIC W
OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING HISPANIOLA. FURTHER EAST...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 42W-62W. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC WITH CENTERS
NEAR 26N34W AND 21N34W. A PLUME OF BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 12N THROUGH 32N BETWEEN 25W-33W. THE FLOW
IN THIS REGION WAS VERY DIFLUENT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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