[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE
AXIS AND WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 37W-38W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND
THE ITCZ FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT ELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH
OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NW GULF. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 18N70W AND CONTINUES ALONG 17N75W 16N80W
TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. N OF THE FRONT WINDS
ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE N CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS N OF 15N. SWLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
HIGH OVER S CAROLINA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
OVER THE SW N ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 69W-77W. FARTHER E...A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N50W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N55W
22N60W AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 90 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 21N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SFC RIDGE AROUND A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N29W COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N40W CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
AND AN UPPER RIDGE SOUTH OF 24N IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG
30W FROM 14N-31N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC DRAWING
UPPER MOISTURE/ HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.


$$
WADDINGTON




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