[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N30W 2N40W EQ47W 1S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 24N90W
22N98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FT
MYERS FL FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  COLD NLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE
50'S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.  25-30 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W.  LIGHTER
15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS THUS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 27N.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE TO S MEXICO IN 24 HOURS.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF WITH 25-30 KT WINDS
ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30'S OVER PORTIONS
OF INLAND S FLORIDA WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ESPECIALLY S OF 17N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SRN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...AND OVER INLAND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 82W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO
BELIZE ALONG 22N80W 19N88W IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.
GALE FORCE NLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 30N77W 28N80W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W.  A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW IS
CENTERED  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N40W.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.  THIS GALE EVENT
IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL.  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED
WSW MOTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF
60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 30N25W 16N55W.  AN UPPER JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120
KT...ORIGINATES NEAR 10N50W AND EXTENDS NE THROUGH 20N30W
23N15W. WIDESPREAD DENSE CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE JET.

$$
FORMOSA





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