[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W EQ45W 1S50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
13W-15W...FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
18W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  ELSEWHERE...THE
CENTRAL GULF HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW...WHILE THE W GULF W
OF 95W HAS 20-25 KT SLY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLOUDLESS UPPER
ELEVATIONS.  EXPECT A STRONG...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OVER THE W GULF TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
AREA MOSTLY E OF 68W...N OF 17N...AND W OF 82W.  IN OTHER WORDS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N HAS FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A BAND OF
THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING E ARE HOWEVER BETWEEN 11N-17N FROM
NICARAGUA TO BARBADOS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXCEPT FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND W CUBA DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W
TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N70W 23N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM S OF FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W-61W.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 40W-80W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W.  ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER S NEAR 17N38W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 8N20W.   A JETSTREAM
IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE UPPER SYSTEMS PRODUCING A SWATH OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N40W TO BEYOND 24N16W OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA





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