[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 1N24W 3N39W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N26W 3N37W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 3N42W AND
4N50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING
SE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST ATTM AND WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY
DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 27N82W 24N90W
20N95W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CRESTS OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG POINTS 20N93W 26N82W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN 89W AND 93W...IS STREAMING NE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N92W TO BEYOND 26N81W...BUT APPEARS
TO BE EVAPORATING W OF 88W. A SURFACE FRONT IS DISSIPATING ALONG
LINE 29N81W 28N84W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT
BEST. SE OF THE FRONT...THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS W
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N84W.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N79W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE STILL
DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 65W. THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH STILL EXTENDS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO A WEAKENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 13N62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET IS AMPLIFYING N OVER CARIBBEAN S OF
16N ACCOMPANIED BY THIN BROKEN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. AT THE LOW
LEVELS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEAS N OF 12N EXCEPT BECOMING LOCALLY
OVERCAST N OF 16N W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION DISCUSSION
AREA ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR W OF LINE 32N69W 29N81W. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 32N76W 30N76W BECOMING
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA COAST AT 29N81W. A
MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED SE OF THIS TROUGH ALONG THE RIDGE
CREST...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 27N80W TO
BEYOND 32N62W. THIN BROKEN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE W OF LINE 32N37W 20N73W. THE CENTRAL
SUB-TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED ALOFT BY A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH CYCLONES FILLING AT 31N34W 24N38W 16N51W AND
TO NEAR 13N63W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N38W 14N61W.

THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ALONG 8N E OF 45W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
300 NM WIDE MOISTURE PLUME...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION
OVER S AMERICA...STREAMS NE ALONG AXIS 3N52W 14N38W THEN BEGINS
EVAPORATING BUT CONTINUES E ACROSS AFRICA BEYOND 24N12W. AT THE
LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 32N38W 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE SW
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CRESTING OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY
SW ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
NELSON





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