[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 24N98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N TO BEYOND 31N
BETWEEN 84W-92W.  THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10 KT NLY WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT GULF HAS 10-20 KT SLY
SURFACE FLOW.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 80W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE E GULF E OF 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.   EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO

CARIBBEAN...
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TRADES ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY N OF 12N MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W.  THE W EDGE OF A TROUGH IS OVER
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N55W TO 27N62W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N40W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 30W-48W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 15N40W TO 25N15W.

$$
FORMOSA




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