[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 4N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TO NEAR 22N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 23N88W 22N91W AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS...WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS...IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028MB SFC HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA.
MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS RESULTING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BACKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIERRA MADRE
RANGE...COVERING THE GULF W OF 88W. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC
STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE W OF 70W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION N OF 15N. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W
ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
31N71W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS NEAR 24N81W. A BROAD AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST... A 1018 MB SFC LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N38W WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO
33N35W AND THEN TURNING SOUTH AND ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
30N33W. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N36W TO
21N46W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 27N BETWEEN
31W AND 38W. BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS... THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
COVERED BY A RIDGE AROUND A 1029 MB SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALOFT...A JET WITH CORE VELOCITIES NEAR 130 KT IS ELONGATED SW
TO NE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N17W. THE
JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS
THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND INTO THE COAST OF AFRICA.


$$
WADDINGTON




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