[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N25W 4N41W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 11W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF
N OF 24N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA S OF FORT MYERS ALONG 23N86W WHERE IT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 22N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
E OF 88W AND WITH 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
JETSTREAM REMAINS OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH WINDS TO 100 KT N
OF 26N FROM E TEXAS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL EXIT
THE GULF LATER TODAY WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN PUSH BACK NORTH ON
TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E CUBA THEN CONTINUING N INTO THE W ATLC.
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR N AS CUBA AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 76W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
13N61W 14N72W TO 20N84W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE REGION N OF 26N W OF 75W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR
32N74W EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND
FORT LAUDERDALE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 32N37W SW ALONG 23N47W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 14N70W.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W
EXTENDING ALONG 27N37W TO 24N45W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR
24N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 29N FROM 32W-39W. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND
COVERING THE AREA FROM 35W TO THE W ATLC FRONT. THE TYPICAL E/W
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF
115 KT IS WITHIN 375/425 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM
18N41W 27N26W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 27N13W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN 350 NM OF LINE FROM 10N41W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N27W.

$$
WALLACE





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