[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 0N34W 2S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 120 NM OF 5N12W AND
WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 300 NM NW OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE NW GULF WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION. AT THE LOW
LEVELS A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FOR SIMPLICITY AS A
SINGLE COLD FRONT FROM 31N83W TO 26N90W INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW
AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ANALYZED FRONT.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE
NE GULF...IS ENHANCING TSTMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SINCE SUNRISE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
SPREADING NE ACROSS FLORIDA FANNING OUT OVER THE ATLC W OF
BERMUDA.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATING OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND IS ALSO NOTED ALONG A BAND SPREADING E ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS RACING W
ACROSS THE NE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE BAHAMAS
TO A CREST JUST BEYOND 33N76W. A BROAD AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE
AT 22N55W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N42W EXTENDING WSW TO 28N52W ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER
THE AREA W OF THE FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS W OF THE AFRICAN COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ E OF 45W RESULTING IN A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NE
ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE S OF THE CANARIES. AT THE LOW LEVELS A
LARGE AREA OF DUST AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 16N E OF 30W.

$$
NELSON







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