[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N21W 1N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150/175 NM OF
LINE FROM 1N45W TO 5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER
E/CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODERATE E TO SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE
W GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING OVER W CUBA ACROSS THE SE LOUISIANA COAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BANK LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COAST AS WELL AS NE MEXICO. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND
GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 76W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRAWING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE..LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING W OF BERMUDA
THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N CENTRAL
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINING FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N25W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N32W THEN W TO 25N41W TO
26N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 21W-42W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS S BETWEEN THESE FRONTS THROUGH 32N49W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE W ATLC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE EASTERN FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF W AFRICA BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$
WALLACE




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