[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141212 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 14 2008

CORRECTION TO INCLUDE INFORMATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
ABOUT A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W...TO 2S50W
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AT THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF AND WHEN
THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS
A COLD FRONT FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 98W IN MEXICO AND 117W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT
COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT STILL CUTS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND/ABACO ISLAND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A...SUPPORTING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N77W 29N72W BEYOND 32N69W. THE CLOUD LINE FROM 24N78W
TO 20N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N91W ALONG THE GUATEMALA/
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W
IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK AND WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 17N54W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 18N63W. THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT COVERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA...ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MOVING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY BRING OUT
THIS POINT. THE HIGH CLOUDS CUT ACROSS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS EAST OF 63W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W...AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/BELIZE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N29W TO 25N40W
25N50W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N50W TO 29N60W. THE PART OF
THE FRONT WEST OF 37W CUTS THROUGH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
50W FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO
240 NM THE NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...ENTERING THE
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN THE AREA NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM EAST
OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS ON TOP OF
MOROCCO. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS MORE READILY APPARENT THAN AN
EXACT CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N16W JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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