[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 3N20W TO 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W...
TO 1S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO EAST TEXAS TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE NORTH CENTRAL-TO-THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. WE SAW THIS SAME TROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS AGO AS THE
TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SPREADING PRECIPITATION
TO THE EAST OF ITS LOCATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA...
AND AS FAR TO THE EAST AS 78W NORTH OF 24N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BEYOND 32N70W. A WARM FRONT
REACHES NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT NOW IS ALONG THE
WESTERN END OF WHAT USED TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH
RESULTED FROM A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM LAST WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...STAYING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW.
NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 10N NORTHWARD.
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N19WI...
APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND PORTUGAL/SPAIN. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST OF THE 32N46W 27N57W COLD FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT GOES FROM 27N57W TO 26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N69W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.


$$
MT




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