[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 3N20W...TO JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N15W 7N18W
5N22W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 4N EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA/BRAZIL.
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN
30W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
94W AND 97W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THIS FEATURE TO BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ENCROACHING UPON THE GULF WATERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AND NOW ARE WEST OF 84W...LEAVING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. A REMNANT TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CUBA
ALONG 80W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA AND
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN
DYING LITTLE BY LITTLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO THE
COAST OF CUBA ALONG 80W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH
TIME DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...COVER THE WATERS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WEST OF 84W/85W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS
OF LOW CLOUDS...MOST NOTABLY NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN
GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF BERMUDA TO
30N64W 26N70W TO 25N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS MARK THE
FRONT/TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NEAR 22N63W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
33N24W TO 17N25W.

$$
MT




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