[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 2N20W 2N35W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 3N2W TO 2N8W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER FAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWEEPING EWD IN STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE MOST RECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO A BASE OVER THE
N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N87W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS FRONT WAS MOVING SE AT 15-20 KT AND IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE A WEAKENING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM NEAR PALM BEACH TO THE
S-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS DEFINITION SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-90 NM SE
OF THE FRONT JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO
HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE WWD JUST TO THE S
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN EMBEDDED SMALL MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS JUST S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N67W.
CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A 2334 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS PROVIDING
SOME SUPPORT FOR AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
32N73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PALM BEACH AND JUST S OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W IS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AND EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N60W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N52W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W ACROSS THE W COAST
OF MALI AND MAURITANIA THEN TURNS WSWWD THROUGH 20N22W 18N35W
THEN UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE THROUGH 18N50W TO THE NE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N17W ALONG 25N16W THEN SW ALONG 23N20W TO
22N24W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 29N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 10W-15W. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 4N/5N TO 40W
AND A WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N35W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 19N16W.

$$
COBB






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