[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N20W 2N30W 2N40W THEN
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-13W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 13W-26W...AND FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 24N89W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF ACTIVE
LIGHTNING IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
84W-87W.  ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 30N91W 28N97W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E GULF PROVIDING
LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF DRIVING THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT E.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 30 KT ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
MOSTLY S OF 20N.  A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS..A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N71W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1009 MB
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
26N19W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 17W-20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N17W.

$$
FORMOSA






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