[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N46W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1N52W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER FROM 4N TO 5N
BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 52W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF 12N60W 13N50W 18N40W 22N30W BEYOND 26N20W...
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 60W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.
THE JET STREAM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS MOVING
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE
RIDGE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALONG 75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
MORE...NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N67W IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION EAST OF 70W...NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN
70W AND 81W...AND FROM 12N TO 18N WEST OF 81W. A QUIKSCAT PASS
YESTERDAY WAS INDICATING 20 KT TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

EAST OF 60W...IN THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N45W TO 27N52W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG
35W/37W FROM 17N TO 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N
TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 22N30W
BEYOND 32N23W. A JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 KT TO 110 KT
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
MT


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