[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N35W EQUATOR AT 46W
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 14W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SOUTH OF AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 29N69W
EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION. SLY RETURN
FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. BUOYS AND SHIPS ACROSS
THE GULF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 1130Z ALSO CONFIRMED THESE REPORTS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
COMPUTER MODEL...THE FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW CLOUD LINES PARALLEL TO THE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE U.S. PARTICULARLY BETWEEN EASTERN
TEXAS AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS
THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE STATE OF COAHUILA. A JET
STREAM BRANCH AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA DOMINATES THE BASIN
WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS SEEN INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...AND OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS PRODUCING
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC
SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES
OVER THE W ATLC KEEPS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 29N69W DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N/32N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC. THIS
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW...HAS SLIGHTLY MOVED EWD AND
NOW LIES ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N-27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS IS STILL SHOWING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATING BY A 1031 SFC
HIGH LOCATED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY
THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN
COAST.

$$
GR






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