[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 6N20W 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 44W...AND
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N
EAST OF 40W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...STAYING SOUTHEAST OF 10N60W 16N46W 22N30W
BEYOND 24N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE REDUCES
THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.
THIS DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LOW-TOP CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 24N EAST OF 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EAST OF 70W...FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 82W TOWARD LAND. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG A RIDGE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO 29N50W TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N71W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N57W TO 21N59W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N44W TO 31N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 33N47W 31N49W 26N56W.
A WEAKENING CENTRAL-TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N31W TO 27N33W TO 21N38W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N37W 23N39W TO 20N39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.

$$
MT


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