[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10E 1N10W 3N30W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SE PROGRESS AS IT WEAKENS ANALYZED FROM N
FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 24N87W 18N94W AT 15Z. TIGHTENED
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER EXTREME
S TEXAS IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT N TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RATHER RAPIDLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF. DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ONLY ONE PATCH REMAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN
85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS HAS BUILT IN
BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E
INTO THE ATLC ALLOWING E TO SE FLOW TO DEVELOP.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG 76W/77W WHILE
TROUGHING LIES OVER THE E CARIB INDUCED BY A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CUT OFF NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LOW HAS AN
ASSOCIATED HIGHLY ELONGATED SFC TROUGH LYING JUST E OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SOME OF WHICH ARE DRIVEN SWD INTO THE
E CARIB BY NLY FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY
ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE REGION-WIDE. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PATCHES
THIN OUT W OF 75W AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS
MORE OF AN ELY COMPONENT. A COLD FRONT IS NOT FAR FROM THE NW
CORNER BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE AS IT NEARS CLOSER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS NWD OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 74W/75W. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS ERODING THE W SIDE OF THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT
IN THE SUBTROPICS AS IT LIFTS NE. FOR THAT REASON THE COLD FRONT
IN THE E GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE ATLC
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW HAS DRIFTED FAIRLY FAR
S INTO THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 18N57W. AN ASSOCIATED ELONGATED
SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N68W 20N60W 10N56W. INSTABILITY
NEAR THE UPPER CENTER IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 53W-58W WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE NE WHERE A MUCH
BROADER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N35W. A RELATED SFC TROUGH
LIES NEARLY DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ALONG 38W/39W FROM
20N-28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
31W-40W. THIS SFC TROUGH AND THE ONE FARTHER W IS ENHANCING NE
TO E TRADES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF ABOUT 65W-70W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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