[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO ENTERING NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND EXTENDING WSW TO
27N93W WHERE IT PROGRESSES WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF FROM THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR 27N95W S TO 23N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 92W. THESE BOUNDARY FEATURES
ARE SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS OF THE U.S. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE SE AND SW GULF
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N87W AND IS
GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THU AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE BRAZIL ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA
AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-77W...AND WITHIN 90
NM OF THE WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...BUOY
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W SW TO 24N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES
WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT
IS WEAKENING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKEN AND IS
LOCATED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE ATLC W OF 40W. FURTHER EAST...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N9W SW TO JUST E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NRN MOROCCO IN NW AFRICA. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ALONG 25W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 23N...WITH FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADES NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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