[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 06N11W 02N30W 00N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG ROUGHLY 28N...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING BUT STALLS FROM ROUGHLY THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE WED NIGHT...AS UPPER SUPPORT
LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES
THU AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE WESTERN
ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NE
WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. OTHERWISE...BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN SOUTH OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THU.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING AS AN THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH NE OF
BERMUDA LIFTS OUT TO THE N CENTRAL ATLC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 00Z SHOWED WINDS AROUND 20 KT BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE CANARY
ISLANDS 32N14N TO 27N19N...SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES TO NEAR 24N25W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ALONG 35W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS S OUT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG
23N...WITH FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES NOTED ON ASCAT PASSES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN





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