[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N40W 2N40W TO EQ50W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N97W
18N95W DELINEATED BY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
KANSAS TO PUSH DOWN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
AREA ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N57W 27N70W 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N54W. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT IS JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 32N17W 27N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 20N
IN THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND W AFRICA.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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