[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280504
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 6N24W 7N39W 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 12W-30W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN
30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST TO INLAND ACROSS S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI. HEAVY/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 30 NM W OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER
THE E US COAST WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR NOTED E OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA COAST TO MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC IS BEGINNING TO
RETREAT EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT COVERING THE E GULF
RETURN FLOW WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF 90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE E THROUGH SUN THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EXITING THE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS W CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE/STRONG
ELY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MON THEN WEAKEN TUE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC TO 75W WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 16N AND THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N30W
EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N68W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NE ATLC OFF THE
COAST OF NW AFRICA NEAR 32N10W SW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N16W WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL N OF AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND SW UPPER FLOW ARE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 31N55W ALONG 24N30W TO OVER AFRICA S OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N13W WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF THIS LINE TO THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE





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