[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 0N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
AND FLORIDA WHILE TEXAS HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE
TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ESPECIALLY S OF 20N
AND E OF 83W. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO S GEORGIA
NEAR 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1007 MB LOW IS NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N26W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 32N20W 27N20W 20N30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
16W-26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
40W-65W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND S OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO W AFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH MORE SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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