[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
39W-47W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N
BRAZIL FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER TEXAS...THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO...AND NE MEXICO FROM HOUSTON TO BROWNSVILLE TO 25N100W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...
THE REMNANT CLOUD MASS FROM THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ENTRAINING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N IN
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15
KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE NORTH OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CARIBBEAN MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ESPECIALLY S OF
21N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY S OF 20N AND E OF 100W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
36N60W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 28N40W 25N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS
TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1007 MB LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N20W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N17W TO 28N17W TO 24N20W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 15W-18W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 5N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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