[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N16W 5N28W 7N39W 5N53W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 11N FROM 41W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING W ALONG 26N90W TO
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N97W. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS FROM
THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS WITH SINGLE DIGITS FURTHER TO
THE N. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS MAINLY N OF
OF THE REGION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE W ATLC SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF MON AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED CURRENTLY BY A 1038 MB HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THUS ONLY
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION USHERED IN ON NE TO E WINDS. MOST NOTABLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W ALONG 17N72W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
13N84W. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO TUE

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND TO THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. TO THE SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC...A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
28N58W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N60W AND ENCOMPASSES THE
AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANALYZED FROM 28N42W TO 18N45W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 32N35W TO 20N38W AND SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR
11N53W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED OVER THE E ATLC SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 24W-38W. SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING JUST E OF THE
AZORES THROUGH 32N27W TO 25N40W. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED N OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE W ATLC ON MON
NIGHT INTO TUE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING NE TO
E WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THEN SPREADING E THROUGH FRI OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH FRI.

$$
WALLACE






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