[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 5N40W 5N53W. BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 15W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT HUGS THE TEXAS COAST FROM
HOUSTON TO BEYOND BROWNSVILLE TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W
TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER INLAND TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60'S. HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70'S. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES COVERS THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER FLORIDA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
HARDILY ANY CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA....JAMAICA...AND CUBA DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N71W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO THE LOW
CENTER TO 21N63W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF
THE AZORES AT 34N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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