[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N25W 5N35W 8N50W 6N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM
1N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR
30N94W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
25N99W TO BEYOND MONTERREY MEXICO. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
N OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40'S.
HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70'S. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
ARE S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS N OF 25N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM S ALABAMA TO NW MEXICO NEAR
24N98W. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA...E HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS HOWEVER FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS TO BELIZE.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1040 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N57W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N48W 23N60W 22N67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 54W-58W...
AND FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-53W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
W OF FRONT TO 63W. FURTHER E...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
N OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
26N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA







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